Estimating the Celtic / Indo-European input in Spaniards

The Celtic original population most probably descends from the preceeding Central European Late Neolithic/Bronze Age cultures, such as the Bell Beakers or the Unetice.

The Iberian Peninsula before the Bronze Age was genetically middle-neolithic-like, that is, like the Early Neolithic farmers but with an increased level of WHG. But no steppe ancestry present.

But here I don't want to estimate raw steppe ancestry, but the whole LN/BA package. I've estimated this input to be around ~50% in Spaniards.

Using the nMonte stats, spaniards can be modeled as being roughly 40-50% Central Euro BA, and 40-50% Neolithic farmer, and also, depending on the regions of Spain, some minor north-african and/or west-asian might be added to make it a better fit :

      Spanish_Valencia

"Bell_Beaker_LN_Average"   39.75

"Stuttgart"     27.25

"Spain_MN__average"     15.7

"Unetice_BA"   14.95

"Mozabite_Berber"       2.35

Total of :  54.7%  Central-Euro LN/BA + 43.0% Neolithic + 2.35% north-african

Other regions might get more Unetice  than Bell Beaker :

 Spanish_Aragon
"Spain_MN__average"     33.25
"Unetice__BA"   28.9
"Bell_Beaker_LN_Average"        19.45
"Stuttgart"     14.8
"Mozabite_Berber"       3.6

Total :  48.4%  Central-Euro LN/BA + 48.1% Neolithic + 3.6 north-african

Celtiberia population estimate

From the book  ENTRE Celtas e Íberos. Las poblaciones protohistóricas de las Galias e Hispania/ editado por Luis Berrocal-Rangel y Philippe Gardes. — Madrid : Real Academia de la Historia : Casa de Velázquez, 2001. — 248 p. : il. ; 30 cm. —(Bibliotheca Archaeologica Hispana ; 8).

Note, the Celtiberia here refers only to the proper Celtiberian tribes, and not all the Celts of Iberia.

Abstract

The demographic analysis of the Celtiberian is a hard question. To solve it we have analysed the ethnoarchaeological data and we have contrasted it with archaeological data, as the surface of the known Celtiberian civitates and oppida. We have contrasted the results with the few informations transmitted by classical historians and geographers, as the numbers of warriors in Celtiberian armies and the extension of the populi and civitates of Celtiberia after Plinius and Ptolomeus. As conclusion of the analysis, we can consider that Celtiberia, extended about 45.000 km2 had a theoretical demographic density of about 5/6 h./km2 in mountain areas, but could reach 8/10 h./km2 in the best areas, as river valleys and peripheral plains. These results allow us a calculation of the total Celtiberian population between 250.000 h. and about 350.000/450.000 h., a bigger and more logical number. The first demographic anlysis of the Celtiberia offers a interesanting information and very useful for further studies on Archaeology and Ancient History and Geography, and also to better understand the territorial and urban planning, the demography and the sociology of the Celtiberians.